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I work for a private planning firm in California that has partnered in the past with large, well-known firms who are prominent in the New Urbanism movement. (One of our former principals was a founding member of the Congress of New Urbanism and an FAICP.) One of these firms has produced dozens of New Urbanist plans for communities all over the state, at least one dozen of which we've been privy to how things have played out because we "were there."
In almost all the cases we've been a part of, the plans have essentially disintegrated despite initial community support, political momentum, and at least some financial interest from the development community. And this has happened not just since the market meltdown... but in each case it occurred after a certain amount of time had passed, usually shortly after or during environmental review. just a couple of days ago, I got a seemingly innocuous email from one of our clients, letting us know in a gentle fashion that the City Council is going "back to the drawing board" now that we're only a couple months away from EIR certification for an 800-acre New Urbanist development. The reason? Developers and financiers don't think it's viable, and the community just doesn't like it anymore.
We've had many conversations in our company about how and why this has happened. By reviewing these plans (in most cases they have taken the form of Specific Plans), it's often apparent that, despite an internal coherence, they are still islands of New Urbanism in seas of sprawl. So for instance, although there might be mixed uses that theoretically encourage people to shop, live, and work in the same neighborhood, thus reducing traffic-related impacts, the entire development is still an island that cannot support many of the needs of that population, and the anticipated reductions in traffic are never that impressive, if they show up in the model at all.
Now, I know that there are successful cases of New Urbanism. However, in every successful case I've seen, they happen where there is enough market demand for developers to build the dense environments required (e.g. Arlington, VA). What I've more often seen in California, however, is a forcing of these dense tracts into communities that have not, and probably never will, support denser environments than absolutely necessary. And if there's a way for the market to succeed without as much capital investment, it will happen that way.
For me, I have additional reservations about New Urbanist developments. The fact that they try to replicate a type of development that was borne out of hundreds and even thousands of years of gradual village growth in Western European nations in a packaged format is particularly disturbing. It's as if American architects traveled to Italy, Spain, and France, fell in love with the way of life in those places, and then made the enormous mental leap that if we replicate some of the physical aspects of those environments, we'll have that way of life here, too. So we have books showing us how facades should provide jogged variation, how windows should look down on pedestrian promenades, and how outdoor cafes should creep down onto the street. Cars are always anathema, and appropriately so, since those European neighborhoods were built before automobiles. So you have architects enamored with these places trying to recreate them in this country, with different people, different market realities, different physical environments, and most notably, vastly different times. I don't begrudge them for trying; I think those places are cool, too. But to think that a physical re-creation can bring about the level of cultural, environmental, and, essentially, temporal change responsible for those environments in the first place is folly. And without those foundational components, that reality will never come about--if the place is built, it ends up being a hollow re-creation, like a Disneyland exhibit.
It's a lack of authenticity.
I'm in a funny situation. Here I am working for a company who once had a well-known New Urbanist at the forefront of these ideas. He took long sabbaticals to the Italy countryside, touring as an accomplished amateur photographer, and, since I now work on his computer, I can see all these photos he took, all these places he studied, places that no doubt inspired him in his visions for what form-based codes could do to integrate New Urbanism with Euclidean zoning frameworks. And I love those places, especially since I can see them through his eyes. I don't look down on his idealism; in something that lasted throughout his lifetime, it was pure, it was authentic.
But I do believe there is risk in sacrificing potential to see the great futures possible in unique places themselves, and to foist another vision from another time and place into communities that are just not the same. I think we can focus so much on other places that we become increasingly, irrevocably disenfranchised with the cities and neighborhoods we grew up in, and fail to see how those communities can build on what is already there to make a seamless transition from their own history.
Lastly, I think New Urbanism encourages an overly-simplistic approach to planning. As if we can just pull out our tool box and go to work. It's a package of ideas, ideals, and functions, more often used as a marketing tool, not just to sell planning services to local governments, but to bring new planners into the professional associations that encourage such a framework. As they say, to the man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
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Two straight CNU national conferences have rejected my presentation proposals, which are heavily pro-green infra oriented and address GI shortcomings in typical dense developments, and how to overcome these shortcomings without sacrificing ecological benefits. Funny how others - including Seattle's NPSG conf next week - will listen but architects won't. Anyhoo,
In my view you can - and should - try this stuff as a framework and fix it as you go along. The lack of an attitude of "try and fix and do the best job in learning about arranging spaces" is fatal to this crew, and they are hand-waving and doing all they can to hide the shortcomings.
There are some good ideas in there, but the arrogance and attitude that this is the be-all and end-all and lack of attention to important factors will resign this idea to the dustbin or shelf art.
I worked for LRK for a short time and I would have to agree with your contention that most of the projects are isolated, not connected to any existing urban fabric, thus requiring a lot of driving to get around. In 2001 I drove to the large NU development known as The Kentlands in Virginia. A resident saw me taking photos and figured I had some kind of interest in the planning of the development. He voiced some similar concerns, that you still have to drive places for shopping and that many of the residents worked jobs that required long commutes. Another point he made that I thought was interesting was that he noticed a lot of residents had purchased SUVs which did not fit well into the small garages the homes sported, and many had complaints about that and had enlarged garages where they could. People would rather upsize their garages than downsize their cars. Of course, this is before the gas price spikes and greater environmental awareness. I imagine that by now they are following the national trend of moving to smaller cars.
"The last house built being always the vulgarest and ugliest, till one is beginning now to think with regret of the days of Gower Street, and to look with some complacency on the queer little boxes of brown brick which stand with their trim gardens choked up amongst new squares and terraces in the suburbs of London? It is a matter of course that almost every new house shall be quite disgracefully and degradingly ugly, and if by chance we come across a new house that shows any signs of thoughtfulness in design and planning we are quite astonished, and want to know who built it, who owns it, who designed it, and all about it from beginning to end; whereas when architecture was alive every house built was more or less beautiful."
-- William Morris, Art, Wealth and Riches, 1883
"The outskirts of London are full of villas, but life there is said not to be social. For no purpose can the dwellers of those villas be brought together. The man goes up to town by the morning train, spends his day in business, comes home to dinner and after dinner reads his paper. For a couple of months in each year the pair go off to lodgings by themselves at the seaside. Such is the description given by those who know suburban life well. More enjoyment might be had at a less price than that for which the master of the villa spends his days in toil, and here again we seem to see that what is called progress, that is, increase of wealth, is not necessarily increase of happiness."
-- Goldwin Smith, A Trip to England, 1892
NU is more feasible in the drier West and Midwest, thanks to the presence of large, unbroken tracts of land, than in the lusher Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and South, which is outside of the PLSS region, and the land division pattern makes it difficult to assemble property for larger projects.